Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Shemar Electric Co.,Ltd (603530.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.56 - $35.34$23.56
Multi-Stage$12.65 - $13.78$13.21
Blended Fair Value$18.39
Current Price$32.98
Upside-44.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS523.75%0.00%0.260.050.110.120.210.000.010.040.010.00
YoY Growth--417.01%-51.71%-13.97%-40.91%743,791.36%-99.64%-80.23%450.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.93%0.27%0.70%0.94%1.11%0.00%0.09%0.45%0.08%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)372.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)201.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)170.88
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.4346.5227.91
Cash Retained (M)170.88170.88170.88
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.43-46.52-27.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)96.45124.36142.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)424.73424.73424.73
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.290.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.470.470.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.290.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$16.56$23.56$35.34
Upside / Downside-49.78%-28.55%7.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)372.15396.34422.11449.54478.76509.88525.18
Payout Ratio54.08%61.27%68.45%75.63%82.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)201.27242.83288.93340.00396.50458.90485.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)218.75220.82222.89
Year 2 PV (M)234.47238.94243.44
Year 3 PV (M)248.56255.69262.96
Year 4 PV (M)261.11271.15281.48
Year 5 PV (M)272.24285.39299.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,137.624,337.464,544.96
Equity Value (M)5,372.745,609.465,854.79
Shares Outstanding (M)424.73424.73424.73
Fair Value$12.65$13.21$13.78
Upside / Downside-61.64%-59.95%-58.20%

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