Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co.,Ltd. (600961.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.36 - $16.71$13.22
Multi-Stage$14.52 - $15.95$15.22
Blended Fair Value$14.22
Current Price$16.23
Upside-12.39%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.40%-5.71%0.120.150.210.170.190.200.190.000.180.21
YoY Growth---23.32%-29.17%22.91%-7.28%-6.72%7.70%0.00%-100.00%-12.82%0.42%
Dividend Yield--1.21%1.32%2.56%1.81%3.02%3.49%1.81%0.00%1.65%2.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,062.92
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.51
(=) Cash Retained (M)966.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)212.58132.8679.72
Cash Retained (M)966.40966.40966.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-212.58-132.86-79.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)753.82833.54886.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,113.351,113.351,113.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.750.80
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.750.80
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.840.88
WACC / Discount Rate8.15%8.15%8.15%
Growth Rate0.72%1.72%2.72%
Fair Value$10.36$13.22$16.71
Upside / Downside-36.18%-18.54%2.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,062.921,081.241,099.891,118.851,138.141,157.761,192.50
Payout Ratio9.08%25.26%41.45%57.63%73.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.51273.17455.88644.82840.131,041.991,103.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.15%8.15%8.15%
Growth Rate0.72%1.72%2.72%
Year 1 PV (M)250.09252.58255.06
Year 2 PV (M)382.13389.75397.45
Year 3 PV (M)494.84509.73524.91
Year 4 PV (M)590.28614.07638.58
Year 5 PV (M)670.27704.21739.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,774.0714,471.5315,196.97
Equity Value (M)16,161.6816,941.8717,752.48
Shares Outstanding (M)1,113.351,113.351,113.35
Fair Value$14.52$15.22$15.95
Upside / Downside-10.56%-6.24%-1.76%

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