Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Grandblue Environment Co., Ltd. (600323.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$390.81 - $460.44$431.50
Multi-Stage$151.59 - $166.28$158.80
Blended Fair Value$295.15
Current Price$27.03
Upside991.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.16%15.53%1.090.900.880.770.720.590.470.440.390.41
YoY Growth--22.13%1.42%14.52%7.26%21.95%24.68%8.30%11.10%-4.87%60.04%
Dividend Yield--4.58%5.38%4.95%4.13%2.69%2.95%2.71%3.12%2.78%3.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,883.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)442.04
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,441.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)376.70235.44141.26
Cash Retained (M)1,441.461,441.461,441.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-376.70-235.44-141.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,064.761,206.021,300.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)813.54813.54813.54
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.311.481.60
LTM Dividend per Share0.540.540.54
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.311.481.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.852.032.14
WACC / Discount Rate4.60%4.60%4.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$390.81$431.50$460.44
Upside / Downside1,345.83%1,496.36%1,603.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,883.512,005.932,136.322,275.182,423.072,580.572,657.98
Payout Ratio23.47%36.78%50.08%63.39%76.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)442.04737.691,069.901,442.181,858.342,322.512,458.63

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.60%4.60%4.60%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)698.64705.26711.88
Year 2 PV (M)959.62977.89996.35
Year 3 PV (M)1,225.041,260.211,296.04
Year 4 PV (M)1,494.981,552.471,611.60
Year 5 PV (M)1,769.471,854.941,943.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)117,179.32122,839.12128,715.54
Equity Value (M)123,327.06129,189.89135,275.09
Shares Outstanding (M)813.54813.54813.54
Fair Value$151.59$158.80$166.28
Upside / Downside460.83%487.50%515.17%

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