Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shandong Jinling Mining Co., Ltd. (000655.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.05 - $6.17$5.05
Multi-Stage$8.37 - $9.21$8.78
Blended Fair Value$6.91
Current Price$8.89
Upside-22.23%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%6.75%0.190.050.050.100.000.000.000.010.010.00
YoY Growth--284.43%0.00%-50.00%10,003.45%0.00%-100.00%-81.45%-7.01%403.97%-97.96%
Dividend Yield--2.86%0.79%0.70%1.36%0.01%0.00%0.03%0.17%0.11%0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)274.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)177.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.9134.3220.59
Cash Retained (M)177.97177.97177.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.91-34.32-20.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)123.06143.66157.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)595.36595.36595.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.160.160.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.240.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.43
WACC / Discount Rate6.96%6.96%6.96%
Growth Rate-1.96%-0.96%0.04%
Fair Value$4.05$5.05$6.17
Upside / Downside-54.39%-43.24%-30.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)274.55271.90269.28266.69264.12261.58269.43
Payout Ratio35.18%46.14%57.11%68.07%79.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.57125.46153.78181.54208.75235.42249.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.96%6.96%6.96%
Growth Rate-1.96%-0.96%0.04%
Year 1 PV (M)116.11117.30118.48
Year 2 PV (M)131.72134.42137.15
Year 3 PV (M)143.92148.37152.91
Year 4 PV (M)153.17159.51166.05
Year 5 PV (M)159.87168.19176.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,277.454,500.114,731.93
Equity Value (M)4,982.255,227.905,483.38
Shares Outstanding (M)595.36595.36595.36
Fair Value$8.37$8.78$9.21
Upside / Downside-5.87%-1.23%3.60%

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