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OFG Bancorp (OFG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$103.19 - $273.75$157.80
Multi-Stage$70.70 - $77.25$73.92
Blended Fair Value$115.86
Current Price$43.49
Upside166.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS26.00%12.17%1.010.900.660.430.320.320.280.230.220.39
YoY Growth--11.30%36.29%52.60%37.11%0.04%12.34%21.25%4.06%-42.90%22.67%
Dividend Yield--2.51%2.52%2.66%1.63%1.40%2.83%1.40%2.23%1.89%5.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)199.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)50.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)149.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.9124.9414.97
Cash Retained (M)149.42149.42149.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.91-24.94-14.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)109.51124.47134.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)45.3645.3645.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.412.742.96
LTM Dividend per Share1.111.111.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.412.742.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.523.854.07
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$103.19$157.80$273.75
Upside / Downside137.28%262.83%529.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)199.56212.53226.34241.06256.72273.41281.61
Payout Ratio25.13%38.10%51.08%64.05%77.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)50.1480.97115.61154.40197.74246.07260.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)73.5274.2274.92
Year 2 PV (M)95.3197.1398.96
Year 3 PV (M)115.58118.90122.28
Year 4 PV (M)134.41139.58144.90
Year 5 PV (M)151.88159.21166.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,636.572,763.922,896.14
Equity Value (M)3,207.283,352.963,504.03
Shares Outstanding (M)45.3645.3645.36
Fair Value$70.70$73.92$77.25
Upside / Downside62.58%69.96%77.62%

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