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AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. 9.500% Senior Notes due 2029 (MITN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - MortgageSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.70 - $16.83$14.20
Multi-Stage$20.21 - $22.12$21.15
Blended Fair Value$17.68
Current Price$25.36
Upside-30.30%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%1.241.191.260.991.180.002.292.212.230.00
YoY Growth--3.94%-5.25%27.49%-16.04%0.00%-100.00%3.48%-0.55%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.95%4.72%5.01%3.93%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.936.213.72
Cash Retained (M)11.9711.9711.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.93-6.21-3.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.045.768.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.0030.0030.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.190.27
LTM Dividend per Share1.261.261.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.190.27
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.321.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$11.70$14.20$16.83
Upside / Downside-53.88%-44.00%-33.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49.6749.1748.6848.1947.7147.2348.65
Payout Ratio75.90%78.72%81.54%84.36%87.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.7038.7139.6940.6541.5942.5145.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)35.1235.4835.84
Year 2 PV (M)32.6833.3534.02
Year 3 PV (M)30.3731.3132.27
Year 4 PV (M)28.1929.3630.56
Year 5 PV (M)26.1427.5028.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)453.82477.46502.06
Equity Value (M)606.32634.45663.67
Shares Outstanding (M)30.0030.0030.00
Fair Value$20.21$21.15$22.12
Upside / Downside-20.30%-16.60%-12.76%

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