Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Malayan Cement Berhad (3794.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.32 - $5.13$4.16
Multi-Stage$7.42 - $8.17$7.78
Blended Fair Value$5.97
Current Price$5.02
Upside18.97%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.110.100.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.11%1.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)672.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)198.78
(=) Cash Retained (M)473.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.4884.0550.43
Cash Retained (M)473.60473.60473.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.48-84.05-50.43
(=) Excess Retained (M)339.13389.56423.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,876.071,876.071,876.07
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.180.210.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3.32$4.16$5.13
Upside / Downside-33.86%-17.13%2.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)672.39665.66659.00652.41645.89639.43658.61
Payout Ratio29.56%41.65%53.74%65.83%77.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)198.78277.25354.14429.45503.23575.49609.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.46%6.46%6.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)257.79260.42263.05
Year 2 PV (M)306.17312.45318.79
Year 3 PV (M)345.22355.90366.79
Year 4 PV (M)376.13391.72407.79
Year 5 PV (M)399.94420.77442.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,226.3512,863.0013,525.91
Equity Value (M)13,911.6014,604.2515,324.78
Shares Outstanding (M)1,876.071,876.071,876.07
Fair Value$7.42$7.78$8.17
Upside / Downside47.71%55.07%62.72%

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