Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Fixstars Corporation (3687.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,511.88 - $3,931.37$2,297.58
Multi-Stage$1,046.50 - $1,143.02$1,093.89
Blended Fair Value$1,695.73
Current Price$2,046.00
Upside-17.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.58%28.59%12.989.955.036.097.687.185.144.784.092.39
YoY Growth--30.53%97.69%-17.39%-20.65%6.93%39.58%7.63%16.76%71.33%127.48%
Dividend Yield--0.61%0.77%0.41%0.68%0.82%0.46%0.52%0.41%0.57%0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,111.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)610.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,501.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)422.27263.92158.35
Cash Retained (M)1,501.351,501.351,501.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-422.27-263.92-158.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,079.081,237.431,343.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)32.2332.2332.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share33.4838.3941.67
LTM Dividend per Share18.9318.9318.93
(+) Excess Retained per Share33.4838.3941.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend52.4157.3260.59
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,511.88$2,297.58$3,931.37
Upside / Downside-26.11%12.30%92.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,111.352,248.582,394.742,550.402,716.182,892.732,979.51
Payout Ratio28.89%41.11%53.33%65.56%77.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)610.00924.471,277.231,671.962,112.602,603.462,756.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)838.96846.91854.87
Year 2 PV (M)1,051.901,071.931,092.16
Year 3 PV (M)1,249.631,285.501,322.05
Year 4 PV (M)1,432.931,488.031,544.71
Year 5 PV (M)1,602.541,679.941,760.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,554.0128,884.8830,266.69
Equity Value (M)33,729.9735,257.2136,840.79
Shares Outstanding (M)32.2332.2332.23
Fair Value$1,046.50$1,093.89$1,143.02
Upside / Downside-48.85%-46.54%-44.13%

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