Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Newamstar Packaging Machinery Co.,Ltd (300509.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$9.33 - $40.05$16.17
Multi-Stage$28.13 - $31.03$29.55
Blended Fair Value$22.86
Current Price$9.08
Upside151.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.22%0.00%0.130.120.120.140.130.130.160.120.080.00
YoY Growth--13.68%2.63%-15.49%1.13%6.53%-20.83%33.33%50.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.74%2.13%1.80%1.92%2.20%2.10%1.91%1.50%0.59%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)64.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.5012.197.31
Cash Retained (M)32.7532.7532.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.50-12.19-7.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)13.2520.5725.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)300.77300.77300.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.220.220.22
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate1.97%1.97%1.97%
Growth Rate-0.78%0.22%1.22%
Fair Value$9.33$16.17$40.05
Upside / Downside2.76%78.11%341.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.5297.7397.9498.1598.3698.57101.53
Payout Ratio66.41%71.13%75.85%80.56%85.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)64.7669.5174.2879.0783.8888.7193.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.97%1.97%1.97%
Growth Rate-0.78%0.22%1.22%
Year 1 PV (M)67.4968.1768.85
Year 2 PV (M)70.0271.4372.87
Year 3 PV (M)72.3674.5776.82
Year 4 PV (M)74.5377.5880.72
Year 5 PV (M)76.5280.4684.55
PV of Terminal Value (M)8,100.628,517.168,950.67
Equity Value (M)8,461.528,889.379,334.48
Shares Outstanding (M)300.77300.77300.77
Fair Value$28.13$29.55$31.03
Upside / Downside209.83%225.50%241.79%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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