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Securitas AB (publ) (S7MB.BE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty Business ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$868.01 - $1,937.66$1,815.87
Multi-Stage$287.38 - $314.72$300.80
Blended Fair Value$1,058.33
Current Price$143.17
Upside639.22%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.27%7.11%3.803.452.802.553.062.802.552.392.231.91
YoY Growth--10.12%23.25%9.86%-16.67%9.09%10.00%6.65%7.15%16.66%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.68%3.07%3.02%2.76%2.48%3.22%2.01%2.05%1.95%1.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,582.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,289.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,293.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,116.40697.75418.65
Cash Retained (M)4,293.004,293.004,293.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,116.40-697.75-418.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,176.603,595.253,874.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)572.92572.92572.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.546.286.76
LTM Dividend per Share2.252.252.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.546.286.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.798.539.01
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$868.01$1,815.87$1,937.66
Upside / Downside506.28%1,168.33%1,253.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,582.005,944.836,331.246,742.777,181.067,647.827,877.26
Payout Ratio23.09%36.47%49.86%63.24%76.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,289.002,168.303,156.464,263.925,502.016,883.047,286.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.45%6.45%6.45%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,017.842,036.972,056.09
Year 2 PV (M)2,733.612,785.672,838.23
Year 3 PV (M)3,436.473,535.123,635.64
Year 4 PV (M)4,126.614,285.314,448.54
Year 5 PV (M)4,804.195,036.235,277.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)147,526.51154,652.09162,050.39
Equity Value (M)164,645.22172,331.39180,306.05
Shares Outstanding (M)572.92572.92572.92
Fair Value$287.38$300.80$314.72
Upside / Downside100.73%110.10%119.82%

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