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Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR-A)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas IntegratedSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.18 - $65.89$46.85
Multi-Stage$51.23 - $56.11$53.63
Blended Fair Value$50.24
Current Price$11.82
Upside325.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS57.73%16.68%2.843.055.852.030.210.290.100.000.000.00
YoY Growth---6.83%-47.83%188.28%856.69%-27.17%200.32%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--21.81%20.50%63.04%14.52%2.48%5.40%0.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,955.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12,074.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,881.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,791.001,744.381,046.63
Cash Retained (M)1,881.001,881.001,881.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,791.00-1,744.38-1,046.63
(=) Excess Retained (M)-910.00136.63834.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,444.376,444.376,444.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.020.13
LTM Dividend per Share1.871.871.87
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.140.020.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.731.892.00
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate1.60%2.60%3.60%
Fair Value$34.18$46.85$65.89
Upside / Downside189.18%296.39%457.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,955.0014,318.2114,690.8715,073.2415,465.5515,868.0716,344.12
Payout Ratio86.52%87.22%87.91%88.61%89.30%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12,074.0012,487.8812,915.1213,356.1513,811.3814,281.2715,118.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.75%6.75%6.75%
Growth Rate1.60%2.60%3.60%
Year 1 PV (M)11,584.0111,698.0211,812.03
Year 2 PV (M)11,113.1911,333.0311,555.01
Year 3 PV (M)10,660.8410,978.7311,302.88
Year 4 PV (M)10,226.2810,634.8611,055.56
Year 5 PV (M)9,808.8310,301.1310,813.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)276,745.89290,635.65305,077.58
Equity Value (M)330,139.04345,581.42361,616.07
Shares Outstanding (M)6,444.376,444.376,444.37
Fair Value$51.23$53.63$56.11
Upside / Downside333.41%353.68%374.73%

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