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Lincoln National Corporation (LNC)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Insurance - LifeSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$114.03 - $177.46$143.32
Multi-Stage$149.73 - $164.26$156.86
Blended Fair Value$150.09
Current Price$40.33
Upside272.15%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.26%6.09%1.701.691.721.761.721.681.601.451.321.13
YoY Growth--0.66%-1.61%-2.82%2.57%2.64%4.84%10.31%10.08%16.67%20.00%
Dividend Yield--4.73%5.34%7.63%2.70%2.76%6.37%2.58%1.98%2.01%2.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,109.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)316.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,793.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)421.80263.63158.18
Cash Retained (M)1,793.001,793.001,793.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-421.80-263.63-158.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,371.201,529.381,634.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)180.75180.75180.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share7.598.469.04
LTM Dividend per Share1.751.751.75
(+) Excess Retained per Share7.598.469.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend9.3310.2110.79
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate0.84%1.84%2.84%
Fair Value$114.03$143.32$177.46
Upside / Downside182.75%255.38%340.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,109.002,147.872,187.462,227.782,268.842,310.662,379.98
Payout Ratio14.98%29.99%44.99%59.99%75.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)316.00644.08984.141,336.521,701.562,079.602,201.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate0.84%1.84%2.84%
Year 1 PV (M)584.57590.37596.16
Year 2 PV (M)810.69826.84843.16
Year 3 PV (M)999.241,029.261,059.88
Year 4 PV (M)1,154.621,201.101,248.97
Year 5 PV (M)1,280.761,345.541,412.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)22,233.9823,358.4624,527.99
Equity Value (M)27,063.8528,351.5729,689.07
Shares Outstanding (M)180.75180.75180.75
Fair Value$149.73$156.86$164.26
Upside / Downside271.27%288.93%307.28%

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