Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co., Ltd. (603915.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$44.03 - $79.63$74.59
Multi-Stage$39.98 - $44.05$41.98
Blended Fair Value$58.28
Current Price$17.03
Upside242.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.330.200.220.180.140.000.000.000.000.08
YoY Growth--59.02%-5.90%20.79%25.64%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.88%1.47%1.11%0.86%0.54%0.00%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)270.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)157.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.79
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)54.0633.7920.27
Cash Retained (M)112.79112.79112.79
(-) Cash Required (M)-54.06-33.79-20.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)58.7379.0092.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)645.68645.68645.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.370.39
WACC / Discount Rate1.58%1.58%1.58%
Growth Rate0.81%1.81%2.81%
Fair Value$44.03$74.59$79.63
Upside / Downside158.53%338.00%367.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)270.32275.21280.19285.27290.43295.69304.56
Payout Ratio58.27%64.62%70.96%77.31%83.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)157.53177.84198.84220.54242.96266.12281.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.58%1.58%1.58%
Growth Rate0.81%1.81%2.81%
Year 1 PV (M)173.36175.08176.80
Year 2 PV (M)188.94192.71196.51
Year 3 PV (M)204.28210.42216.68
Year 4 PV (M)219.38228.22237.32
Year 5 PV (M)234.24246.09258.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)24,796.8026,051.3127,356.09
Equity Value (M)25,817.0027,103.8328,441.82
Shares Outstanding (M)645.68645.68645.68
Fair Value$39.98$41.98$44.05
Upside / Downside134.79%146.49%158.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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