Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (300636.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.57 - $15.86$8.70
Multi-Stage$3.80 - $4.15$3.97
Blended Fair Value$6.33
Current Price$8.46
Upside-25.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS54.23%10.96%0.070.040.080.030.030.010.020.000.000.01
YoY Growth--84.73%-50.91%193.64%0.07%227.48%-62.68%2,000.20%-70.23%-64.33%-61.03%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.49%0.59%0.16%0.22%0.08%0.39%0.01%0.06%0.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)94.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)36.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)58.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.9011.817.09
Cash Retained (M)58.4258.4258.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.90-11.81-7.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.5246.6151.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)419.89419.89419.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.090.110.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.57$8.70$15.86
Upside / Downside-34.17%2.82%87.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)94.51100.66107.20114.17121.59129.49133.37
Payout Ratio38.18%48.55%58.91%69.27%79.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)36.0948.8663.1579.0996.83116.54123.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)44.4544.8745.29
Year 2 PV (M)52.2453.2454.24
Year 3 PV (M)59.5161.2262.96
Year 4 PV (M)66.2768.8271.44
Year 5 PV (M)72.5576.0579.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,299.211,361.961,427.11
Equity Value (M)1,594.221,666.151,740.73
Shares Outstanding (M)419.89419.89419.89
Fair Value$3.80$3.97$4.15
Upside / Downside-55.12%-53.10%-51.00%

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