Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Louisa Professional Coffee Ltd. (2758.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.13 - $55.82$43.81
Multi-Stage$105.14 - $115.94$110.43
Blended Fair Value$77.12
Current Price$101.50
Upside-24.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%1.503.006.001.602.740.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---50.00%-50.00%275.00%-41.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.36%2.24%4.13%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.06
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.818.014.80
Cash Retained (M)33.3333.3333.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.81-8.01-4.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)20.5225.3228.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.5020.5020.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.001.231.39
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.001.231.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.502.732.89
WACC / Discount Rate5.18%5.18%5.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$34.13$43.81$55.82
Upside / Downside-66.38%-56.84%-45.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.0663.4162.7862.1561.5360.9262.74
Payout Ratio47.97%56.38%64.78%73.19%81.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.7335.7540.6745.4950.2154.8258.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.18%5.18%5.18%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)33.6533.9934.34
Year 2 PV (M)36.0336.7737.51
Year 3 PV (M)37.9239.1040.29
Year 4 PV (M)39.3941.0342.71
Year 5 PV (M)40.4942.5944.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,968.232,070.722,177.44
Equity Value (M)2,155.712,264.202,377.08
Shares Outstanding (M)20.5020.5020.50
Fair Value$105.14$110.43$115.94
Upside / Downside3.59%8.80%14.22%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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