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Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.74 - $113.38$65.35
Multi-Stage$31.65 - $34.45$33.03
Blended Fair Value$49.19
Current Price$24.80
Upside98.35%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.631.250.520.050.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--30.68%140.19%945.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.39%3.14%1.71%0.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)181.19
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)171.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.2422.6513.59
Cash Retained (M)9.719.719.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.24-22.65-13.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)-26.53-12.94-3.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)99.4499.4499.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.27-0.13-0.04
LTM Dividend per Share1.721.721.72
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.27-0.13-0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.461.591.69
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$42.74$65.35$113.38
Upside / Downside72.34%163.53%357.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)181.19192.97205.51218.87233.10248.25255.70
Payout Ratio94.64%93.71%92.78%91.86%90.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)171.48180.84190.68201.05211.95223.42236.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)164.20165.76167.31
Year 2 PV (M)157.21160.21163.23
Year 3 PV (M)150.51154.83159.23
Year 4 PV (M)144.07149.61155.31
Year 5 PV (M)137.90144.56151.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,393.922,509.542,629.60
Equity Value (M)3,147.803,284.503,426.15
Shares Outstanding (M)99.4499.4499.44
Fair Value$31.65$33.03$34.45
Upside / Downside27.64%33.18%38.92%

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