Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Trisula Textile Industries Tbk (BELL.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Apparel - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.20 - $5.72$4.97
Multi-Stage$8.56 - $9.39$8.97
Blended Fair Value$6.97
Current Price$50.00
Upside-86.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-13.20%0.00%0.350.500.280.070.500.700.600.000.000.00
YoY Growth---31.03%78.57%300.00%-86.00%-28.57%16.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.63%0.84%0.20%0.10%0.36%0.52%1.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,082.21
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,977.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,105.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,216.44760.28456.17
Cash Retained (M)1,105.211,105.211,105.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,216.44-760.28-456.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)-111.23344.94649.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,232.237,232.237,232.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.050.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.690.690.69
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.050.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.740.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate-5.92%-4.92%-3.92%
Fair Value$4.20$4.97$5.72
Upside / Downside-91.60%-90.06%-88.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,082.215,783.005,498.525,228.024,970.844,726.314,868.10
Payout Ratio81.83%83.46%85.10%86.73%88.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,977.004,826.674,679.094,534.344,392.524,253.684,502.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.16%9.16%9.16%
Growth Rate-5.92%-4.92%-3.92%
Year 1 PV (M)4,375.284,421.784,468.29
Year 2 PV (M)3,844.833,927.004,010.04
Year 3 PV (M)3,377.453,486.303,597.46
Year 4 PV (M)2,965.833,093.963,226.18
Year 5 PV (M)2,603.492,744.832,892.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,766.4047,196.6749,731.36
Equity Value (M)61,933.2964,870.5467,925.57
Shares Outstanding (M)7,232.237,232.237,232.23
Fair Value$8.56$8.97$9.39
Upside / Downside-82.87%-82.06%-81.22%

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