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Afya Limited (AFYA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$71.59 - $110.01$89.49
Multi-Stage$154.16 - $169.89$161.87
Blended Fair Value$125.68
Current Price$82.95
Upside51.51%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.410.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.41%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)729.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)129.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)600.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)145.8991.1854.71
Cash Retained (M)600.42600.42600.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-145.89-91.18-54.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)454.53509.24545.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)92.7592.7592.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.905.495.88
LTM Dividend per Share1.391.391.39
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.905.495.88
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.296.887.27
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$71.59$89.49$110.01
Upside / Downside-13.70%7.88%32.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)729.43722.13714.91707.76700.68693.68714.49
Payout Ratio17.69%32.15%46.61%61.07%75.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)129.01232.16333.23432.26529.28624.31660.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)215.56217.76219.96
Year 2 PV (M)287.28293.18299.13
Year 3 PV (M)346.01356.71367.63
Year 4 PV (M)393.38409.68426.49
Year 5 PV (M)430.84453.27476.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,625.3513,282.7813,967.32
Equity Value (M)14,298.4215,013.3815,757.16
Shares Outstanding (M)92.7592.7592.75
Fair Value$154.16$161.87$169.89
Upside / Downside85.85%95.14%104.81%

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