Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shandong Kehui Power Automation Co.,Ltd. (688681.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.39 - $16.76$11.66
Multi-Stage$6.71 - $7.32$7.01
Blended Fair Value$9.33
Current Price$17.16
Upside-45.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.52%2.08%0.150.110.120.100.110.110.110.110.110.11
YoY Growth--43.47%-11.94%24.14%-9.85%1.63%-2.48%4.68%-0.20%-4.98%-11.71%
Dividend Yield--1.26%0.96%0.77%0.61%0.44%0.44%0.45%0.00%0.43%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)50.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)15.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)34.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.076.293.78
Cash Retained (M)34.6034.6034.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.07-6.29-3.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.5328.3030.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)103.32103.32103.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.390.430.45
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.08%6.08%7.08%
Fair Value$8.39$11.66$16.76
Upside / Downside-51.08%-32.06%-2.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)50.3453.4056.6560.0963.7567.6369.65
Payout Ratio31.27%43.02%54.76%66.51%78.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)15.7422.9731.0239.9749.8960.8664.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.96%9.96%9.96%
Growth Rate5.08%6.08%7.08%
Year 1 PV (M)20.6920.8921.09
Year 2 PV (M)25.1725.6626.14
Year 3 PV (M)29.2230.0630.92
Year 4 PV (M)32.8534.1235.42
Year 5 PV (M)36.1137.8639.68
PV of Terminal Value (M)549.03575.65603.30
Equity Value (M)693.07724.23756.54
Shares Outstanding (M)103.32103.32103.32
Fair Value$6.71$7.01$7.32
Upside / Downside-60.91%-59.15%-57.33%

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