Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Chison Medical Technologies Co., Ltd. (688358.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - SpecialtiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.09 - $1.32$1.22
Multi-Stage$0.84 - $0.88$0.86
Blended Fair Value$1.04
Current Price$32.90
Upside-96.83%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.27%0.00%0.800.700.360.570.710.560.170.120.270.00
YoY Growth--14.03%96.22%-37.50%-20.00%26.98%232.44%45.14%-56.48%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.58%2.05%0.99%2.00%2.06%1.14%0.46%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)136.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)57.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)78.56
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.2017.0010.20
Cash Retained (M)78.5678.5678.56
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.20-17.00-10.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.3661.5668.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)112.20112.20112.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.550.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.550.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate94.16%94.16%94.16%
Growth Rate2.86%3.86%4.86%
Fair Value$1.09$1.22$1.32
Upside / Downside-96.68%-96.29%-96.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)136.02141.26146.71152.37158.24164.35169.28
Payout Ratio42.24%51.79%61.35%70.90%80.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)57.4673.1690.00108.02127.31147.91156.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate94.16%94.16%94.16%
Growth Rate2.86%3.86%4.86%
Year 1 PV (M)37.3237.6838.04
Year 2 PV (M)23.4223.8724.33
Year 3 PV (M)14.3414.7615.19
Year 4 PV (M)8.628.969.31
Year 5 PV (M)5.115.365.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)5.936.226.53
Equity Value (M)94.7296.8599.03
Shares Outstanding (M)112.20112.20112.20
Fair Value$0.84$0.86$0.88
Upside / Downside-97.43%-97.38%-97.32%

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