Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Saudi Automotive Services Company (4050.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Specialty RetailSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$126.38 - $148.90$139.54
Multi-Stage$40.32 - $44.20$42.22
Blended Fair Value$90.88
Current Price$56.35
Upside61.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS22.45%-2.01%1.180.820.810.441.200.430.000.000.380.00
YoY Growth--43.51%1.50%85.35%-63.57%180.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.75%1.23%2.54%1.27%4.12%1.83%0.00%0.00%2.85%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)32.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.516.573.94
Cash Retained (M)32.4032.4032.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.51-6.57-3.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.8925.8328.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)70.1870.1870.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.310.370.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.600.660.69
WACC / Discount Rate4.94%4.94%4.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$126.38$139.54$148.90
Upside / Downside124.28%147.63%164.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52.5455.9659.6063.4767.5971.9974.15
Payout Ratio38.33%48.67%59.00%69.33%79.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.1427.2335.1644.0153.8564.7968.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.94%4.94%4.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)25.7125.9526.19
Year 2 PV (M)31.3331.9332.53
Year 3 PV (M)37.0138.0739.16
Year 4 PV (M)42.7544.4046.09
Year 5 PV (M)48.5550.9053.33
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,644.192,771.902,904.50
Equity Value (M)2,829.542,963.153,101.81
Shares Outstanding (M)70.1870.1870.18
Fair Value$40.32$42.22$44.20
Upside / Downside-28.45%-25.07%-21.56%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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