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HBT Financial, Inc. (HBT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.53 - $25.23$21.29
Multi-Stage$28.57 - $31.37$29.94
Blended Fair Value$25.61
Current Price$25.20
Upside1.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-35.98%0.00%0.770.690.590.530.527.121.351.811.290.00
YoY Growth--10.56%17.70%10.93%1.42%-92.66%427.81%-25.32%40.06%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.42%3.70%2.98%2.92%3.06%67.66%8.69%11.63%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)26.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)52.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.679.795.88
Cash Retained (M)52.3352.3352.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.67-9.79-5.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.6642.5446.46
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)31.5731.5731.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.161.351.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.820.820.82
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.161.351.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.992.172.30
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$17.53$21.29$25.23
Upside / Downside-30.44%-15.53%0.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78.3477.5676.7876.0275.2674.5076.74
Payout Ratio33.20%44.56%55.92%67.28%78.64%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)26.0134.5642.9451.1459.1867.0570.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)31.3631.6832.00
Year 2 PV (M)35.3536.0736.81
Year 3 PV (M)38.2039.3940.59
Year 4 PV (M)40.1141.7743.49
Year 5 PV (M)41.2443.3845.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)715.87753.14791.96
Equity Value (M)902.13945.44990.46
Shares Outstanding (M)31.5731.5731.57
Fair Value$28.57$29.94$31.37
Upside / Downside13.38%18.83%24.48%

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