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Growthpoint Properties Australia (GOZ.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: REIT - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.43 - $40.57$30.79
Multi-Stage$41.53 - $45.69$43.57
Blended Fair Value$37.18
Current Price$2.33
Upside1,495.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-2.18%4.50%0.210.200.220.210.200.230.210.190.190.15
YoY Growth--2.48%-5.54%3.11%2.01%-12.02%10.65%9.48%3.43%22.44%13.05%
Dividend Yield--8.95%9.21%7.72%6.13%5.03%7.28%4.95%5.32%5.92%4.82%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,381.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)226.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,155.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)276.38172.74103.64
Cash Retained (M)1,155.701,155.701,155.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-276.38-172.74-103.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)879.32982.961,052.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)753.68753.68753.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.171.301.40
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.171.301.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.471.601.70
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate0.21%1.21%2.21%
Fair Value$23.43$30.79$40.57
Upside / Downside905.65%1,221.57%1,641.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,381.901,398.621,415.541,432.661,449.991,467.531,511.56
Payout Ratio16.37%31.10%45.82%60.55%75.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)226.20434.90648.62867.441,091.461,320.781,398.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.48%6.48%6.48%
Growth Rate0.21%1.21%2.21%
Year 1 PV (M)404.39408.42412.46
Year 2 PV (M)560.79572.04583.40
Year 3 PV (M)697.37718.45739.96
Year 4 PV (M)815.90848.96883.02
Year 5 PV (M)918.05964.781,013.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)27,903.7029,324.0330,801.62
Equity Value (M)31,300.2032,836.6934,433.85
Shares Outstanding (M)753.68753.68753.68
Fair Value$41.53$43.57$45.69
Upside / Downside1,682.41%1,769.90%1,860.86%

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