Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ferguson plc (FERG)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$577.22 - $1,959.45$1,836.29
Multi-Stage$252.71 - $276.61$264.44
Blended Fair Value$1,050.37
Current Price$248.50
Upside322.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS8.38%3.51%2.463.953.582.715.221.652.246.851.651.58
YoY Growth---37.63%10.27%32.16%-48.07%216.82%-26.52%-67.26%314.21%4.33%-9.21%
Dividend Yield--0.99%2.01%2.38%2.48%3.41%1.64%2.64%10.39%2.21%3.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,956.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)489.74
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,466.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)391.20244.50146.70
Cash Retained (M)1,466.261,466.261,466.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-391.20-244.50-146.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,075.061,221.761,319.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.53198.53198.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.426.156.65
LTM Dividend per Share2.472.472.47
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.426.156.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend7.888.629.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.94%6.94%6.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$577.22$1,836.29$1,959.45
Upside / Downside132.28%638.95%688.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,956.002,083.142,218.542,362.752,516.332,679.892,760.29
Payout Ratio25.04%38.03%51.02%64.02%77.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)489.74792.221,131.961,512.511,937.762,411.902,553.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.94%6.94%6.94%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)733.85740.80747.76
Year 2 PV (M)971.29989.791,008.47
Year 3 PV (M)1,202.211,236.721,271.89
Year 4 PV (M)1,426.731,481.591,538.03
Year 5 PV (M)1,644.981,724.431,806.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)44,190.5246,324.9448,541.05
Equity Value (M)50,169.5752,498.2854,914.11
Shares Outstanding (M)198.53198.53198.53
Fair Value$252.71$264.44$276.61
Upside / Downside1.69%6.42%11.31%

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