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Baskent Dogalgaz Dagitim Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. (BASGZ.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$547.62 - $1,056.23$989.84
Multi-Stage$167.39 - $183.09$175.10
Blended Fair Value$582.47
Current Price$38.32
Upside1,420.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS37.04%0.00%3.352.141.240.320.800.691.040.460.000.00
YoY Growth--56.62%72.32%282.98%-59.44%15.27%-33.40%127.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--12.38%11.64%9.65%2.35%8.26%7.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,717.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,400.17
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,317.55
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)743.54464.72278.83
Cash Retained (M)1,317.551,317.551,317.55
(-) Cash Required (M)-743.54-464.72-278.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)574.00852.831,038.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)700.00700.00700.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.821.221.48
LTM Dividend per Share3.433.433.43
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.821.221.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.254.654.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$547.62$989.84$1,056.23
Upside / Downside1,329.07%2,483.10%2,656.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,717.723,959.374,216.734,490.824,782.725,093.605,246.41
Payout Ratio64.56%69.65%74.74%79.82%84.91%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,400.172,757.633,151.423,584.764,061.114,584.244,852.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,569.392,593.752,618.10
Year 2 PV (M)2,735.862,787.972,840.58
Year 3 PV (M)2,899.622,982.863,067.67
Year 4 PV (M)3,060.693,178.403,299.47
Year 5 PV (M)3,219.113,374.603,536.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)102,689.37107,649.30112,799.07
Equity Value (M)117,174.06122,566.88128,160.92
Shares Outstanding (M)700.00700.00700.00
Fair Value$167.39$175.10$183.09
Upside / Downside336.83%356.93%377.78%

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