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AdvanSix Inc. (ASIX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.59 - $19.56$16.50
Multi-Stage$22.14 - $24.30$23.20
Blended Fair Value$19.85
Current Price$19.38
Upside2.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.630.610.550.130.000.000.000.009.880.00
YoY Growth--2.87%10.51%328.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.78%2.25%1.45%0.25%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%36.17%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.496.553.93
Cash Retained (M)35.2835.2835.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.49-6.55-3.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.7928.7231.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)27.2627.2627.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.911.051.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.630.630.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.911.051.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.541.681.78
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$13.59$16.50$19.56
Upside / Downside-29.88%-14.85%0.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52.4351.9051.3950.8750.3649.8651.36
Payout Ratio32.72%44.17%55.63%67.09%78.54%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.1522.9328.5934.1339.5644.8747.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)20.8021.0221.23
Year 2 PV (M)23.5324.0224.50
Year 3 PV (M)25.4926.2827.09
Year 4 PV (M)26.8127.9229.07
Year 5 PV (M)27.6029.0330.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)479.08504.03530.00
Equity Value (M)603.32632.30662.42
Shares Outstanding (M)27.2627.2627.26
Fair Value$22.14$23.20$24.30
Upside / Downside14.22%19.71%25.41%

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