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Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Staffing & Employment ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$237.81 - $630.84$363.63
Multi-Stage$169.42 - $184.74$176.94
Blended Fair Value$270.29
Current Price$293.50
Upside-7.91%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.28%9.97%5.885.354.674.073.863.603.172.612.442.31
YoY Growth--9.89%14.68%14.74%5.30%7.14%13.73%21.56%6.88%5.47%1.72%
Dividend Yield--2.00%1.93%1.94%1.80%1.93%2.58%1.96%1.73%2.23%2.62%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,136.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,453.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,683.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)827.26517.04310.22
Cash Retained (M)1,683.301,683.301,683.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-827.26-517.04-310.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)856.041,166.261,373.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)408.01408.01408.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.102.863.37
LTM Dividend per Share6.016.016.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.102.863.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.118.879.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$237.81$363.63$630.84
Upside / Downside-18.98%23.90%114.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,136.304,405.164,691.494,996.445,321.215,667.095,837.10
Payout Ratio59.30%65.44%71.58%77.72%83.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,453.002,882.883,358.293,883.324,462.415,100.385,399.32

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.10%9.10%9.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,617.662,642.472,667.28
Year 2 PV (M)2,768.792,821.532,874.77
Year 3 PV (M)2,907.112,990.563,075.60
Year 4 PV (M)3,033.293,149.943,269.93
Year 5 PV (M)3,147.993,300.043,457.90
PV of Terminal Value (M)54,648.9657,288.5360,029.12
Equity Value (M)69,123.8072,193.0775,374.59
Shares Outstanding (M)408.01408.01408.01
Fair Value$169.42$176.94$184.74
Upside / Downside-42.28%-39.71%-37.06%

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