Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Natural Gas Distribution Company (9516.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.83 - $25.01$20.03
Multi-Stage$39.66 - $43.71$41.65
Blended Fair Value$30.84
Current Price$44.40
Upside-30.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-7.79%0.00%0.500.500.500.501.000.750.500.500.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%-50.00%33.33%50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.73%1.19%0.94%0.41%5.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)8.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1.601.000.60
Cash Retained (M)5.505.505.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-1.60-1.00-0.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.904.504.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.015.015.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.900.98
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.900.98
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.281.401.48
WACC / Discount Rate5.90%5.90%5.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$15.83$20.03$25.01
Upside / Downside-64.34%-54.89%-43.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)8.007.927.847.767.697.617.84
Payout Ratio31.24%42.99%54.75%66.50%78.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2.503.414.295.166.016.857.25

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.90%5.90%5.90%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)3.183.223.25
Year 2 PV (M)3.753.833.91
Year 3 PV (M)4.224.354.48
Year 4 PV (M)4.594.784.98
Year 5 PV (M)4.895.145.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)178.18187.46197.12
Equity Value (M)198.81208.77219.14
Shares Outstanding (M)5.015.015.01
Fair Value$39.66$41.65$43.71
Upside / Downside-10.68%-6.20%-1.55%

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