Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sobute New Materials Co., Ltd (603916.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.29 - $3.46$2.84
Multi-Stage$5.11 - $5.62$5.36
Blended Fair Value$4.10
Current Price$10.42
Upside-60.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.40%-2.70%0.270.390.480.410.310.280.220.110.250.22
YoY Growth---30.63%-17.75%16.13%32.32%11.82%25.84%102.90%-57.24%15.89%-38.71%
Dividend Yield--3.58%4.54%2.92%1.92%1.36%1.68%1.79%0.84%2.34%2.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)111.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)69.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.2813.928.35
Cash Retained (M)41.8241.8241.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.28-13.92-8.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.5427.9033.47
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)411.40411.40411.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-2.40%-1.40%-0.40%
Fair Value$2.29$2.84$3.46
Upside / Downside-77.99%-72.72%-66.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)111.39109.84108.31106.79105.30103.83106.95
Payout Ratio62.46%67.96%73.47%78.98%84.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)69.5774.6579.5884.3588.9793.4598.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.82%6.82%6.82%
Growth Rate-2.40%-1.40%-0.40%
Year 1 PV (M)69.1769.8870.59
Year 2 PV (M)68.3369.7471.16
Year 3 PV (M)67.1169.2071.32
Year 4 PV (M)65.6068.3371.14
Year 5 PV (M)63.8567.1870.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,768.191,860.651,956.93
Equity Value (M)2,102.252,204.982,311.81
Shares Outstanding (M)411.40411.40411.40
Fair Value$5.11$5.36$5.62
Upside / Downside-50.96%-48.56%-46.07%

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