Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Cisen Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (603367.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.55 - $213.05$88.78
Multi-Stage$43.38 - $47.61$45.46
Blended Fair Value$67.12
Current Price$20.56
Upside226.45%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.72%19.04%0.680.350.310.270.620.260.160.120.120.12
YoY Growth--95.07%11.89%15.58%-56.88%135.72%65.41%34.61%-4.52%1.30%3.49%
Dividend Yield--4.94%2.35%2.17%2.04%4.75%1.57%0.87%0.44%0.74%0.73%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)492.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)203.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)289.52
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.5661.6036.96
Cash Retained (M)289.52289.52289.52
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.56-61.60-36.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)190.96227.92252.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)450.35450.35450.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.510.56
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.510.56
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.01
WACC / Discount Rate5.37%5.37%5.37%
Growth Rate3.24%4.24%5.24%
Fair Value$42.55$88.78$213.05
Upside / Downside106.94%331.81%936.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)492.80513.71535.51558.24581.93606.62624.82
Payout Ratio41.25%51.00%60.75%70.50%80.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)203.28261.99325.32393.56466.99545.96577.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.37%5.37%5.37%
Growth Rate3.24%4.24%5.24%
Year 1 PV (M)246.26248.65251.03
Year 2 PV (M)287.43293.02298.67
Year 3 PV (M)326.83336.42346.20
Year 4 PV (M)364.53378.86393.61
Year 5 PV (M)400.58420.36440.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,909.1818,793.4719,712.35
Equity Value (M)19,534.8120,470.7821,442.77
Shares Outstanding (M)450.35450.35450.35
Fair Value$43.38$45.46$47.61
Upside / Downside110.98%121.09%131.59%

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