Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co., Ltd. (603305.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$33.63 - $82.19$77.03
Multi-Stage$12.47 - $13.62$13.04
Blended Fair Value$45.03
Current Price$18.15
Upside148.11%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.08%122.94%0.270.130.070.160.000.110.040.020.010.05
YoY Growth--115.98%74.59%-54.02%8,082.70%-98.24%151.66%89.45%120.32%-78.90%54,707.94%
Dividend Yield--1.99%0.88%0.26%0.99%0.01%0.58%0.26%0.15%0.13%0.60%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)393.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)385.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)78.6349.1429.48
Cash Retained (M)7.237.237.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-78.63-49.14-29.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)-71.39-41.91-22.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)951.21951.21951.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.04-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.410.410.41
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.08-0.04-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$33.63$77.03$82.19
Upside / Downside85.26%324.39%352.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)393.13418.68445.90474.88505.75538.62554.78
Payout Ratio98.16%96.53%94.90%93.26%91.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)385.89404.14423.14442.89463.43484.76513.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)375.78379.34382.91
Year 2 PV (M)365.83372.80379.83
Year 3 PV (M)356.04366.26376.68
Year 4 PV (M)346.40359.73373.43
Year 5 PV (M)336.92353.20370.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,082.8710,569.8811,075.53
Equity Value (M)11,863.8612,401.2112,958.46
Shares Outstanding (M)951.21951.21951.21
Fair Value$12.47$13.04$13.62
Upside / Downside-31.28%-28.17%-24.94%

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