Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

China Testing & Certification International Group Co.,Ltd. (603060.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consulting ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.96 - $5.16$3.90
Multi-Stage$2.52 - $2.73$2.62
Blended Fair Value$3.26
Current Price$6.40
Upside-49.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.41%18.95%0.160.150.090.090.080.070.060.040.150.03
YoY Growth--6.45%61.05%0.63%20.90%6.99%24.19%30.65%-70.74%435.24%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.35%1.98%0.81%0.86%0.57%0.93%0.78%0.73%1.73%0.72%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)173.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)114.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.7221.7013.02
Cash Retained (M)59.2559.2559.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.72-21.70-13.02
(=) Excess Retained (M)24.5337.5546.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)804.39804.39804.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.140.140.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate11.66%11.66%11.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.96$3.90$5.16
Upside / Downside-53.81%-39.13%-19.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)173.58184.86196.88209.68223.31237.82244.96
Payout Ratio65.87%70.69%75.52%80.35%85.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)114.33130.69148.68168.47190.20214.04226.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.66%11.66%11.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)115.94117.04118.14
Year 2 PV (M)117.02119.25121.50
Year 3 PV (M)117.63121.01124.45
Year 4 PV (M)117.82122.35127.01
Year 5 PV (M)117.62123.30129.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,437.591,507.021,579.11
Equity Value (M)2,023.612,109.962,199.41
Shares Outstanding (M)804.39804.39804.39
Fair Value$2.52$2.62$2.73
Upside / Downside-60.69%-59.01%-57.28%

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