Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Jiangsu Rutong Petro-Machinery Co., Ltd (603036.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.47 - $15.81$11.47
Multi-Stage$7.52 - $8.21$7.86
Blended Fair Value$9.66
Current Price$21.11
Upside-54.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS28.42%0.00%0.200.190.120.150.120.060.050.100.050.07
YoY Growth--5.26%57.85%-20.01%25.39%109.62%7.41%-46.00%90.48%-22.22%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.36%1.55%0.94%1.67%1.44%0.66%0.37%0.62%0.13%0.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)115.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)73.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)23.0314.398.64
Cash Retained (M)73.9573.9573.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-23.03-14.39-8.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.9259.5665.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)209.20209.20209.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate4.44%5.44%6.44%
Fair Value$8.47$11.47$15.81
Upside / Downside-59.86%-45.67%-25.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)115.16121.42128.03135.00142.34150.09154.59
Payout Ratio35.78%46.62%57.47%68.31%79.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.2056.6173.5792.22112.67135.08142.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate4.44%5.44%6.44%
Year 1 PV (M)51.0451.5352.01
Year 2 PV (M)59.8060.9562.11
Year 3 PV (M)67.5769.5371.53
Year 4 PV (M)74.4377.3280.30
Year 5 PV (M)80.4584.3788.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,239.751,300.241,363.08
Equity Value (M)1,573.031,643.951,717.48
Shares Outstanding (M)209.20209.20209.20
Fair Value$7.52$7.86$8.21
Upside / Downside-64.38%-62.77%-61.11%

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