Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.,Ltd. (601882.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$147.72 - $174.04$163.10
Multi-Stage$104.55 - $114.73$109.54
Blended Fair Value$136.32
Current Price$20.88
Upside552.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS35.10%12.78%0.270.540.360.240.050.060.070.060.070.09
YoY Growth---50.00%51.33%49.93%428.89%-25.00%-17.61%23.16%-12.09%-24.37%9.64%
Dividend Yield--1.21%1.95%1.20%1.29%0.33%0.83%0.76%0.47%0.28%4.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)456.82
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)187.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)268.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.3657.1034.26
Cash Retained (M)268.90268.90268.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.36-57.10-34.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)177.53211.79234.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)521.99521.99521.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.340.410.45
LTM Dividend per Share0.360.360.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.340.410.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate1.52%1.52%1.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$147.72$163.10$174.04
Upside / Downside607.48%681.15%733.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)456.82486.51518.13551.81587.68625.88644.65
Payout Ratio41.14%50.91%60.68%70.45%80.23%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)187.92247.68314.41388.78471.48563.29596.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.52%1.52%1.52%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)241.68243.97246.26
Year 2 PV (M)299.36305.06310.82
Year 3 PV (M)361.19371.56382.12
Year 4 PV (M)427.41443.85460.75
Year 5 PV (M)498.26522.33547.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)52,746.8455,294.5357,939.73
Equity Value (M)54,574.7457,181.3059,887.00
Shares Outstanding (M)521.99521.99521.99
Fair Value$104.55$109.54$114.73
Upside / Downside400.72%424.64%449.46%

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