Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electric Device Co., Ltd. (600379.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.10 - $8.82$5.85
Multi-Stage$3.09 - $3.37$3.23
Blended Fair Value$4.54
Current Price$12.49
Upside-63.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.51%13.47%0.110.050.070.050.080.050.030.040.010.02
YoY Growth--98.46%-16.48%41.50%-44.42%79.34%80.23%-38.80%185.18%-14.53%-43.71%
Dividend Yield--1.12%0.62%0.58%0.39%1.07%0.88%0.43%0.63%0.09%0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)70.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)33.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)37.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.168.855.31
Cash Retained (M)37.5937.5937.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.16-8.85-5.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.4328.7432.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)330.15330.15330.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.170.190.20
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.10$5.85$8.82
Upside / Downside-67.20%-53.20%-29.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)70.7975.3980.2985.5191.0796.9999.90
Payout Ratio46.90%55.52%64.14%72.76%81.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)33.2041.8651.5062.2274.1187.2992.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)37.7238.0838.44
Year 2 PV (M)41.8342.6343.43
Year 3 PV (M)45.5446.8548.18
Year 4 PV (M)48.8950.7752.70
Year 5 PV (M)51.9054.4057.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)794.12832.47872.30
Equity Value (M)1,020.001,065.201,112.06
Shares Outstanding (M)330.15330.15330.15
Fair Value$3.09$3.23$3.37
Upside / Downside-75.26%-74.17%-73.03%

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