Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sawai Group Holdings Co., Ltd. (4887.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$835.02 - $1,322.89$1,057.60
Multi-Stage$1,786.11 - $1,963.19$1,872.93
Blended Fair Value$1,465.26
Current Price$2,004.50
Upside-26.90%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.54%5.15%50.8747.7247.7147.7147.7049.5347.6940.1740.1733.94
YoY Growth--6.60%0.02%0.00%0.02%-3.69%3.85%18.74%0.00%18.35%10.23%
Dividend Yield--2.78%2.15%3.95%3.48%2.89%2.73%2.63%2.21%2.21%1.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,883.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,340.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,543.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,976.601,235.38741.23
Cash Retained (M)3,543.003,543.003,543.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,976.60-1,235.38-741.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,566.402,307.632,801.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share13.1319.3423.48
LTM Dividend per Share53.1353.1353.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share13.1319.3423.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend66.2672.4776.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-1.30%-0.30%0.70%
Fair Value$835.02$1,057.60$1,322.89
Upside / Downside-58.34%-47.24%-34.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,883.009,853.449,823.969,794.579,765.289,736.0610,028.15
Payout Ratio64.15%69.32%74.49%79.66%84.83%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,340.006,830.457,317.907,802.388,283.898,762.469,276.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-1.30%-0.30%0.70%
Year 1 PV (M)6,347.306,411.616,475.92
Year 2 PV (M)6,319.266,447.966,577.95
Year 3 PV (M)6,261.046,453.286,649.41
Year 4 PV (M)6,177.236,431.406,693.34
Year 5 PV (M)6,071.916,385.796,712.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)181,959.98191,366.41201,157.90
Equity Value (M)213,136.71223,496.45234,267.04
Shares Outstanding (M)119.33119.33119.33
Fair Value$1,786.11$1,872.93$1,963.19
Upside / Downside-10.89%-6.56%-2.06%

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