Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Middle East Pharmaceutical Industries Company (4016.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - PharmaceuticalsSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.79 - $61.82$50.68
Multi-Stage$84.54 - $92.97$88.67
Blended Fair Value$69.68
Current Price$125.40
Upside-44.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-8.94%0.00%0.721.741.761.801.751.160.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---58.33%-0.96%-2.29%2.59%51.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.56%1.19%1.65%1.69%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)97.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)50.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)19.4612.167.30
Cash Retained (M)50.3150.3150.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-19.46-12.16-7.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)30.8638.1543.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.7120.7120.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.491.842.08
LTM Dividend per Share2.272.272.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.491.842.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.764.114.35
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$40.79$50.68$61.82
Upside / Downside-67.47%-59.58%-50.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)97.2996.3295.3694.4093.4692.5395.30
Payout Ratio48.29%56.63%64.97%73.31%81.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.9854.5561.9669.2176.3283.2788.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)50.4550.9651.48
Year 2 PV (M)53.0054.0855.18
Year 3 PV (M)54.7656.4558.18
Year 4 PV (M)55.8458.1660.54
Year 5 PV (M)56.3559.2962.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,480.321,557.401,637.66
Equity Value (M)1,750.721,836.351,925.39
Shares Outstanding (M)20.7120.7120.71
Fair Value$84.54$88.67$92.97
Upside / Downside-32.59%-29.29%-25.86%

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