Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shenzhen Longtech Smart Control Co., Ltd. (300916.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.83 - $40.59$25.95
Multi-Stage$76.01 - $83.98$79.91
Blended Fair Value$52.93
Current Price$38.68
Upside36.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.320.330.130.090.250.000.100.010.130.00
YoY Growth---3.76%150.00%50.00%-64.52%0.00%-100.00%898.27%-91.96%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.05%1.63%0.46%0.39%1.02%0.00%0.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)136.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.39
(=) Cash Retained (M)78.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.2917.0610.23
Cash Retained (M)78.0778.0778.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.29-17.06-10.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)50.7861.0167.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)144.58144.58144.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.420.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.400.400.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.420.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.760.830.87
WACC / Discount Rate2.15%2.15%2.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$17.83$25.95$40.59
Upside / Downside-53.91%-32.92%4.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)136.46135.09133.74132.40131.08129.77133.66
Payout Ratio42.79%52.23%61.67%71.12%80.56%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.3970.5682.4894.16105.60116.79123.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.15%2.15%2.15%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)68.3869.0869.77
Year 2 PV (M)77.4679.0580.65
Year 3 PV (M)85.6988.3491.04
Year 4 PV (M)93.1296.98100.96
Year 5 PV (M)99.81105.00110.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,565.6311,115.8011,688.66
Equity Value (M)10,990.0811,554.2512,141.50
Shares Outstanding (M)144.58144.58144.58
Fair Value$76.01$79.91$83.98
Upside / Downside96.52%106.61%117.11%

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