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ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. (2491.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Advertising AgenciesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6,725.19 - $27,519.24$17,509.27
Multi-Stage$3,731.70 - $4,084.54$3,904.87
Blended Fair Value$10,707.07
Current Price$795.00
Upside1,246.80%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.00%14.24%66.5380.3479.2862.4351.9947.4420.747.4312.2315.24
YoY Growth---17.18%1.34%27.00%20.06%9.59%128.82%179.14%-39.28%-19.70%-13.29%
Dividend Yield--8.13%7.40%4.66%1.67%1.45%2.67%1.00%0.52%2.83%3.91%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,011.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,227.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,784.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)602.20376.38225.83
Cash Retained (M)1,784.001,784.001,784.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-602.20-376.38-225.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,181.801,407.631,558.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)21.6621.6621.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share54.5764.9971.94
LTM Dividend per Share56.6556.6556.65
(+) Excess Retained per Share54.5764.9971.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend111.22121.65128.60
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate5.00%6.00%7.00%
Fair Value$6,725.19$17,509.27$27,519.24
Upside / Downside745.94%2,102.42%3,361.54%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,011.003,191.573,382.973,585.843,800.894,028.824,149.69
Payout Ratio40.75%50.60%60.45%70.30%80.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,227.001,614.952,045.022,520.863,046.413,625.943,838.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate5.00%6.00%7.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,498.791,513.071,527.34
Year 2 PV (M)1,761.421,795.131,829.16
Year 3 PV (M)2,015.102,073.232,132.46
Year 4 PV (M)2,260.062,347.402,437.25
Year 5 PV (M)2,496.522,617.692,743.53
PV of Terminal Value (M)70,789.2174,225.0577,793.02
Equity Value (M)80,821.1184,571.5788,462.76
Shares Outstanding (M)21.6621.6621.66
Fair Value$3,731.70$3,904.87$4,084.54
Upside / Downside369.40%391.18%413.78%

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