Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Guming (1364.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.95 - $17.21$13.82
Multi-Stage$26.79 - $29.52$28.13
Blended Fair Value$20.98
Current Price$23.31
Upside-10.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,364.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)888.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,475.68
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)472.88295.55177.33
Cash Retained (M)1,475.681,475.681,475.68
(-) Cash Required (M)-472.88-295.55-177.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,002.811,180.141,298.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,107.042,107.042,107.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.560.62
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.560.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.900.981.04
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.95$13.82$17.21
Upside / Downside-53.01%-40.69%-26.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,364.392,340.752,317.342,294.172,271.232,248.512,315.97
Payout Ratio37.59%48.07%58.55%69.03%79.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)888.711,125.191,356.861,583.781,806.022,023.662,142.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.03%6.03%6.03%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)1,050.471,061.191,071.91
Year 2 PV (M)1,182.631,206.881,231.39
Year 3 PV (M)1,288.741,328.591,369.26
Year 4 PV (M)1,371.991,428.851,487.46
Year 5 PV (M)1,435.231,509.971,587.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,122.2752,732.2655,449.85
Equity Value (M)56,451.3259,267.7462,197.65
Shares Outstanding (M)2,107.042,107.042,107.04
Fair Value$26.79$28.13$29.52
Upside / Downside14.94%20.67%26.64%

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