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ABC arbitrage S.A. (0OPJ.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - DiversifiedSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.95 - $14.24$11.36
Multi-Stage$17.76 - $19.52$18.63
Blended Fair Value$14.99
Current Price$6.34
Upside136.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.63%9.04%0.300.410.400.420.320.420.390.430.250.25
YoY Growth---27.01%2.90%-5.98%31.21%-23.41%7.68%-9.81%70.38%1.78%98.90%
Dividend Yield--6.22%8.49%6.15%5.91%4.43%6.27%6.41%6.83%3.53%4.86%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)52.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.446.523.91
Cash Retained (M)22.5022.5022.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.44-6.52-3.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.0715.9818.59
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)59.7059.7059.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.270.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.270.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.760.81
WACC / Discount Rate6.78%6.78%6.78%
Growth Rate-0.95%0.05%1.05%
Fair Value$8.95$11.36$14.24
Upside / Downside41.20%79.15%124.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)52.1852.2052.2252.2552.2752.3053.87
Payout Ratio56.87%63.49%70.12%76.75%83.37%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.6733.1436.6240.1043.5847.0749.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.78%6.78%6.78%
Growth Rate-0.95%0.05%1.05%
Year 1 PV (M)30.7331.0431.35
Year 2 PV (M)31.4832.1232.76
Year 3 PV (M)31.9532.9333.93
Year 4 PV (M)32.2033.5234.88
Year 5 PV (M)32.2433.9035.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)901.88948.34996.69
Equity Value (M)1,060.481,111.851,165.24
Shares Outstanding (M)59.7059.7059.70
Fair Value$17.76$18.63$19.52
Upside / Downside180.20%193.77%207.88%

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