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China Gas Holdings Limited (0384.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$37.62 - $215.52$70.59
Multi-Stage$32.86 - $35.95$34.37
Blended Fair Value$52.48
Current Price$7.62
Upside588.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS1.90%15.85%0.490.550.550.570.480.440.330.260.180.17
YoY Growth---11.82%-0.02%-2.29%17.40%8.67%35.11%27.72%45.85%1.24%55.58%
Dividend Yield--6.89%7.91%5.01%5.65%1.52%1.65%1.18%0.90%1.41%1.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)5,940.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,629.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)311.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,188.07742.54445.53
Cash Retained (M)311.12311.12311.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,188.07-742.54-445.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)-876.95-431.42-134.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,399.435,399.435,399.43
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.08-0.02
LTM Dividend per Share1.041.041.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.16-0.08-0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.880.961.02
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Fair Value$37.62$70.59$215.52
Upside / Downside393.73%826.37%2,728.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)5,940.366,230.736,535.306,854.757,189.827,541.277,767.51
Payout Ratio94.76%93.81%92.86%91.91%90.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,629.245,845.056,068.526,299.866,539.326,787.147,184.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate3.89%4.89%5.89%
Year 1 PV (M)5,445.265,497.685,550.09
Year 2 PV (M)5,266.765,368.645,471.50
Year 3 PV (M)5,093.585,242.085,393.45
Year 4 PV (M)4,925.565,117.965,315.95
Year 5 PV (M)4,762.554,996.235,238.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)151,924.90159,378.97167,122.80
Equity Value (M)177,418.61185,601.56194,092.77
Shares Outstanding (M)5,399.435,399.435,399.43
Fair Value$32.86$34.37$35.95
Upside / Downside331.22%351.11%371.74%

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