Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. (002568.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$113.76 - $134.03$125.60
Multi-Stage$27.08 - $29.66$28.35
Blended Fair Value$76.98
Current Price$25.78
Upside198.59%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-73.81%-45.37%0.000.510.370.260.300.200.060.010.030.43
YoY Growth---99.95%35.83%43.49%-14.09%50.00%232.68%508.56%-62.01%-93.98%314.81%
Dividend Yield--0.00%2.58%0.91%1.01%0.54%1.16%0.73%0.13%0.24%3.33%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)694.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)322.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)372.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)138.8386.7752.06
Cash Retained (M)372.03372.03372.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-138.83-86.77-52.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)233.20285.26319.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,030.031,030.031,030.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.280.31
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.280.31
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$113.76$125.60$134.03
Upside / Downside341.26%387.21%419.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)694.16739.28787.33838.50893.01951.05979.58
Payout Ratio46.41%55.12%63.84%72.56%81.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)322.12407.52502.66608.44725.85855.95906.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.59%5.59%5.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)382.31385.93389.56
Year 2 PV (M)442.38450.81459.32
Year 3 PV (M)502.35516.77531.47
Year 4 PV (M)562.22583.84606.08
Year 5 PV (M)621.97652.01683.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,384.9226,611.0327,884.05
Equity Value (M)27,896.1629,200.3930,553.67
Shares Outstanding (M)1,030.031,030.031,030.03
Fair Value$27.08$28.35$29.66
Upside / Downside5.05%9.97%15.06%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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