Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $30.12 - $65.68 | $61.55 |
| Multi-Stage | $10.03 - $10.97 | $10.49 |
| Blended Fair Value | $36.02 | |
| Current Price | $3.56 | |
| Upside | 911.90% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -0.84% | 15.48% | 0.18 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 9.98% | 3.12% | 43.03% | -2.24% | -39.55% | 61.37% | -39.84% | 25,533.58% | -96.62% | -47.67% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.38% | 3.47% | 3.77% | 3.35% | 3.33% | 8.72% | 2.80% | 5.28% | 0.02% | 0.76% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 4,936.50 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 2,848.79 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,087.71 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 987.30 | 617.06 | 370.24 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,087.71 | 2,087.71 | 2,087.71 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -987.30 | -617.06 | -370.24 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,100.41 | 1,470.65 | 1,717.48 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 14,946.97 | 14,946.97 | 14,946.97 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.19 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.26 | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.43% | 6.43% | 6.43% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $30.12 | $61.55 | $65.68 |
| Upside / Downside | 746.04% | 1,629.03% | 1,745.00% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 4,936.50 | 5,257.37 | 5,599.10 | 5,963.04 | 6,350.64 | 6,763.43 | 6,966.33 |
| Payout Ratio | 57.71% | 64.17% | 70.63% | 77.08% | 83.54% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 2,848.79 | 3,373.49 | 3,954.38 | 4,596.52 | 5,305.43 | 6,087.09 | 6,443.86 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.43% | 6.43% | 6.43% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,140.05 | 3,169.82 | 3,199.58 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 3,426.04 | 3,491.30 | 3,557.17 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 3,706.81 | 3,813.22 | 3,921.65 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,982.45 | 4,135.60 | 4,293.13 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 4,253.00 | 4,458.42 | 4,671.71 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 131,434.70 | 137,783.05 | 144,374.36 |
| Equity Value (M) | 149,943.06 | 156,851.41 | 164,017.59 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 14,946.97 | 14,946.97 | 14,946.97 |
| Fair Value | $10.03 | $10.49 | $10.97 |
| Upside / Downside | 181.79% | 194.77% | 208.24% |
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