Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $38.86 - $57.87 | $47.91 |
| Multi-Stage | $59.84 - $65.52 | $62.62 |
| Blended Fair Value | $55.27 | |
| Current Price | $43.25 | |
| Upside | 27.79% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 2.35% | 3.73% | 2.66 | 2.61 | 2.56 | 2.47 | 2.42 | 2.37 | 2.31 | 2.24 | 2.19 | 2.02 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 2.03% | 2.04% | 3.45% | 2.08% | 2.16% | 2.50% | 3.17% | 2.27% | 8.48% | 9.42% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 5.87% | 6.17% | 6.57% | 4.85% | 4.16% | 4.41% | 3.91% | 4.69% | 4.49% | 3.73% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 19,837.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 11,419.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 8,418.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 3,967.40 | 2,479.63 | 1,487.78 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 8,418.00 | 8,418.00 | 8,418.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -3,967.40 | -2,479.63 | -1,487.78 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 4,450.60 | 5,938.38 | 6,930.23 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,227.13 | 4,227.13 | 4,227.13 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 1.05 | 1.40 | 1.64 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 2.70 | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 1.05 | 1.40 | 1.64 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 3.75 | 4.11 | 4.34 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -0.51% | 0.49% | 1.49% |
| Fair Value | $38.86 | $47.91 | $57.87 |
| Upside / Downside | -10.16% | 10.78% | 33.81% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 19,837.00 | 19,933.42 | 20,030.30 | 20,127.65 | 20,225.48 | 20,323.78 | 20,933.50 |
| Payout Ratio | 57.56% | 64.05% | 70.54% | 77.03% | 83.51% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 11,419.00 | 12,767.62 | 14,129.07 | 15,503.46 | 16,890.87 | 18,291.41 | 19,363.49 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | -0.51% | 0.49% | 1.49% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 11,586.42 | 11,702.89 | 11,819.35 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 11,635.71 | 11,870.80 | 12,108.24 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 11,586.37 | 11,939.28 | 12,299.29 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 11,455.41 | 11,922.98 | 12,404.73 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 11,257.58 | 11,834.86 | 12,435.58 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 195,431.35 | 205,452.85 | 215,881.31 |
| Equity Value (M) | 252,952.85 | 264,723.66 | 276,948.50 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 4,227.13 | 4,227.13 | 4,227.13 |
| Fair Value | $59.84 | $62.62 | $65.52 |
| Upside / Downside | 38.36% | 44.80% | 51.48% |
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