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Definitive Analysis

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CTEEP - Companhia de Transmissão de Energia Elétrica Paulista S.A. (TRPL4.SA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$507.10 - $998.43$935.68
Multi-Stage$154.72 - $169.38$161.92
Blended Fair Value$548.80
Current Price$24.30
Upside2,158.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2023202220212020201920182017201620152014
DPS-21.95%165.77%0.910.154.031.131.373.130.970.170.550.64
YoY Growth--511.67%-96.32%255.44%-17.02%-56.37%224.51%479.82%-69.93%-13.91%1,246,541.18%
Dividend Yield--3.64%0.68%15.25%4.48%7.21%16.16%5.85%1.02%4.58%6.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,308.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,239.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,069.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)661.61413.51248.11
Cash Retained (M)2,069.002,069.002,069.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-661.61-413.51-248.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,407.391,655.491,820.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)658.93658.93658.93
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.142.512.76
LTM Dividend per Share1.881.881.88
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.142.512.76
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.024.394.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$507.10$935.68$998.43
Upside / Downside1,986.83%3,750.53%4,008.78%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,308.073,523.103,752.103,995.994,255.724,532.354,668.32
Payout Ratio37.46%47.96%58.47%68.98%79.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,239.071,689.852,193.992,756.533,382.934,079.114,318.19

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.34%6.34%6.34%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,574.241,589.161,604.08
Year 2 PV (M)1,904.071,940.331,976.94
Year 3 PV (M)2,228.612,292.592,357.78
Year 4 PV (M)2,547.942,645.932,746.71
Year 5 PV (M)2,862.113,000.353,143.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)90,834.7895,222.1399,777.40
Equity Value (M)101,951.76106,690.50111,606.81
Shares Outstanding (M)658.93658.93658.93
Fair Value$154.72$161.92$169.38
Upside / Downside536.73%566.32%597.02%

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