Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $243.21 - $645.18 | $371.90 |
| Multi-Stage | $168.30 - $183.78 | $175.90 |
| Blended Fair Value | $273.90 | |
| Current Price | $239.38 | |
| Upside | 14.42% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.88 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 341.77% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 1.08% | 0.40% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 11,870.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 4,000.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 7,870.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 2,374.00 | 1,483.75 | 890.25 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 7,870.00 | 7,870.00 | 7,870.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -2,374.00 | -1,483.75 | -890.25 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 5,496.00 | 6,386.25 | 6,979.75 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,144.84 | 1,144.84 | 1,144.84 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 4.80 | 5.58 | 6.10 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.49 | 3.49 | 3.49 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 4.80 | 5.58 | 6.10 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 8.29 | 9.07 | 9.59 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $243.21 | $371.90 | $645.18 |
| Upside / Downside | 1.60% | 55.36% | 169.52% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 11,870.00 | 12,641.55 | 13,463.25 | 14,338.36 | 15,270.36 | 16,262.93 | 16,750.82 |
| Payout Ratio | 33.70% | 44.96% | 56.22% | 67.48% | 78.74% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 4,000.00 | 5,683.48 | 7,568.91 | 9,675.43 | 12,023.83 | 14,636.64 | 15,494.51 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 5,160.60 | 5,209.52 | 5,258.43 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 6,240.30 | 6,359.16 | 6,479.14 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 7,243.17 | 7,451.10 | 7,662.96 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 8,173.10 | 8,487.42 | 8,810.71 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 9,033.82 | 9,470.16 | 9,923.20 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 156,826.92 | 164,401.72 | 172,266.42 |
| Equity Value (M) | 192,677.92 | 201,379.07 | 210,400.87 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 1,144.84 | 1,144.84 | 1,144.84 |
| Fair Value | $168.30 | $175.90 | $183.78 |
| Upside / Downside | -29.69% | -26.52% | -23.23% |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| LMN.SW | lastminute.com N.V. | 4.75% | $0.62 | 39.82% |
| LREN3.SA | Lojas Renner S.A. | 4.75% | $0.64 | 45.84% |
| POT.NZ | Port of Tauranga Limited | 4.75% | $0.37 | 93.98% |
| 005720.KS | Nexen Corporation | 4.74% | $283.16 | 21.67% |
| 0DTK.L | Savencia S.A. | 4.74% | $2.97 | 20.78% |
| 1368.HK | Xtep International Holdings Limited | 4.74% | $0.25 | 35.82% |
| 3030.SR | Saudi Cement Company | 4.74% | $1.64 | 59.10% |
| EGIE3.SA | Engie Brasil Energia S.A. | 4.74% | $1.48 | 39.71% |
| 3570.TWO | Otsuka Information Technology Corp. | 4.73% | $7.97 | 55.25% |
| 600096.SS | Yunnan Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. | 4.73% | $1.58 | 51.07% |
| CHE-UN.TO | Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund | 4.73% | $0.70 | 71.01% |
| GVH | Globavend Holdings Limited | 4.73% | $0.07 | 61.06% |
| MOUR.BR | Moury Construct S.A. | 4.73% | $27.35 | 20.85% |
| 1578.HK | Bank of Tianjin Co., Ltd. | 4.72% | $0.12 | 10.90% |
| 601598.SS | Sinotrans Limited | 4.72% | $0.29 | 56.81% |
| 6393.T | Yuken Kogyo Co., Ltd. | 4.72% | $152.08 | 45.60% |
| 7278.T | EXEDY Corporation | 4.72% | $264.78 | 76.11% |
| SHURB.XD | Shurgard Self Storage Ltd | 4.72% | $1.38 | 21.77% |
| TD | The Toronto-Dominion Bank | 4.72% | $4.46 | 37.31% |
| 0QLW.L | ALSO Holding AG | 4.71% | $10.07 | 55.86% |
| 111110.KS | Hojeon Limited | 4.71% | $377.81 | 20.16% |
| 3413.TW | Foxsemicon Integrated Technology Inc. | 4.71% | $13.29 | 62.47% |
| BVG.BK | BlueVenture Group Public Company Limited | 4.71% | $0.08 | 58.67% |
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| 013520.KS | Hwaseung Corporation Co.,Ltd. | 4.70% | $101.24 | 13.31% |
| 2S.BK | 2S Metal Public Company Limited | 4.70% | $0.11 | 76.54% |
| COLOR.BK | Salee Colour Public Company Limited | 4.70% | $0.05 | 65.65% |
| GJTL.JK | PT. Gajah Tunggal Tbk | 4.70% | $49.82 | 16.37% |
| JHSF3.SA | JHSF Participações S.A. | 4.70% | $0.37 | 19.33% |
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