Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Diagnostics & ResearchSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$463.31 - $1,492.10$749.07
Multi-Stage$296.87 - $324.74$310.55
Blended Fair Value$529.81
Current Price$464.24
Upside14.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.44%9.52%1.541.381.201.040.890.780.700.620.630.63
YoY Growth--11.47%14.95%15.19%17.21%13.47%11.65%12.24%-0.59%-0.91%2.47%
Dividend Yield--0.31%0.24%0.21%0.18%0.19%0.29%0.26%0.30%0.41%0.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,570.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)623.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,947.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,314.00821.25492.75
Cash Retained (M)5,947.005,947.005,947.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,314.00-821.25-492.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,633.005,125.755,454.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)379.50379.50379.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share12.2113.5114.37
LTM Dividend per Share1.641.641.64
(+) Excess Retained per Share12.2113.5114.37
(=) Adjusted Dividend13.8515.1516.01
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$463.31$749.07$1,492.10
Upside / Downside-0.20%61.35%221.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,570.006,997.057,451.867,936.238,452.089,001.479,271.51
Payout Ratio9.48%25.59%41.69%57.79%73.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)623.001,790.273,106.644,586.586,245.798,101.328,576.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.65%8.65%8.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,632.211,647.681,663.15
Year 2 PV (M)2,582.312,631.492,681.14
Year 3 PV (M)3,475.873,575.653,677.33
Year 4 PV (M)4,315.394,481.354,652.05
Year 5 PV (M)5,103.255,349.745,605.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)95,553.85100,169.13104,961.06
Equity Value (M)112,662.88117,855.05123,240.39
Shares Outstanding (M)379.50379.50379.50
Fair Value$296.87$310.55$324.74
Upside / Downside-36.05%-33.10%-30.05%

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