Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. (TCELL.IS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$521.75 - $1,427.97$1,338.21
Multi-Stage$205.37 - $224.49$214.76
Blended Fair Value$776.49
Current Price$96.15
Upside707.58%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS48.80%97.33%3.361.141.101.180.370.460.871.370.001.80
YoY Growth--194.35%3.91%-6.80%218.59%-19.67%-47.23%-36.47%0.00%-100.00%47,929.86%
Dividend Yield--3.56%1.70%3.43%5.22%2.47%3.73%7.30%9.06%0.00%15.20%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15,649.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)10,988.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,660.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,129.801,956.131,173.68
Cash Retained (M)4,660.804,660.804,660.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,129.80-1,956.13-1,173.68
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,531.002,704.673,487.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,179.462,179.462,179.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.701.241.60
LTM Dividend per Share5.045.045.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.701.241.60
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.746.286.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$521.75$1,338.21$1,427.97
Upside / Downside442.64%1,291.80%1,385.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15,649.0116,666.1917,749.4918,903.2120,131.9221,440.5022,083.71
Payout Ratio70.22%74.17%78.13%82.09%86.04%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)10,988.2112,361.8713,867.6815,517.0217,322.1819,296.4520,427.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)11,480.9911,589.8111,698.64
Year 2 PV (M)11,961.7312,189.5712,419.56
Year 3 PV (M)12,430.6512,787.4913,151.09
Year 4 PV (M)12,887.9313,383.5613,893.36
Year 5 PV (M)13,333.7813,977.8014,646.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)385,505.94404,126.02423,458.74
Equity Value (M)447,601.02468,054.26489,267.86
Shares Outstanding (M)2,179.462,179.462,179.46
Fair Value$205.37$214.76$224.49
Upside / Downside113.60%123.36%133.48%

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