Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $146.63 - $230.62 | $185.14 |
| Multi-Stage | $325.48 - $358.02 | $341.43 |
| Blended Fair Value | $263.29 | |
| Current Price | $243.90 | |
| Upside | 7.95% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -1.72% | -1.28% | 5.44 | 7.42 | 9.93 | 9.43 | 3.23 | 5.93 | 8.12 | 8.14 | 7.41 | 6.68 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -26.74% | -25.29% | 5.28% | 192.31% | -45.57% | -27.01% | -0.21% | 9.92% | 10.81% | 8.06% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.46% | 3.96% | 6.27% | 4.46% | 1.47% | 3.92% | 4.68% | 4.77% | 3.51% | 3.61% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 6,188.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 3,453.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 2,735.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 1,237.60 | 773.50 | 464.10 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 2,735.00 | 2,735.00 | 2,735.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -1,237.60 | -773.50 | -464.10 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 1,497.40 | 1,961.50 | 2,270.90 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 415.17 | 415.17 | 415.17 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 3.61 | 4.72 | 5.47 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 8.32 | 8.32 | 8.32 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 3.61 | 4.72 | 5.47 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 11.92 | 13.04 | 13.79 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.42% | 6.42% | 6.42% |
| Growth Rate | -1.58% | -0.58% | 0.42% |
| Fair Value | $146.63 | $185.14 | $230.62 |
| Upside / Downside | -39.88% | -24.09% | -5.45% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 6,188.00 | 6,151.93 | 6,116.07 | 6,080.42 | 6,044.98 | 6,009.74 | 6,190.04 |
| Payout Ratio | 55.80% | 62.64% | 69.48% | 76.32% | 83.16% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 3,453.00 | 3,853.65 | 4,249.50 | 4,640.62 | 5,027.02 | 5,408.77 | 5,725.78 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.42% | 6.42% | 6.42% |
| Growth Rate | -1.58% | -0.58% | 0.42% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 3,584.74 | 3,621.16 | 3,657.58 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 3,677.13 | 3,752.24 | 3,828.10 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 3,735.36 | 3,850.38 | 3,967.74 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 3,764.03 | 3,919.36 | 4,079.45 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 3,767.26 | 3,962.58 | 4,165.92 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 116,603.41 | 122,648.97 | 128,942.72 |
| Equity Value (M) | 135,131.92 | 141,754.68 | 148,641.51 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 415.17 | 415.17 | 415.17 |
| Fair Value | $325.48 | $341.43 | $358.02 |
| Upside / Downside | 33.45% | 39.99% | 46.79% |
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